The Year of 2023

As the war in Ukraine dragged on, expectations of oil reaching US$ 150 did not materialize as other commodity distribution channels allowed the product to flow to its destination. Similarly, other economic predictions, such as privately issued cryptocurrencies replacing the central role of the US dollar were dashed together with the collapse of FTX. Politically aligned countries wishing to guarantee better trade arrangements as well as some self-sufficiency struggled to find ways to emulate regional currencies similar to the euro, the enlarged BRICS being the obvious example, considering how different they were in terms of the free flow of capital and labor. Securing supply chains and technology through industrial policy seemed to be a far more rational choice in face of external threats, even if that meant potentially higher inflation and a higher neutral rate, pushing forward the prospects of yet higher interest rates. The benefits of artificial intelligence in terms of productivity or even China's ability to generate growth created more doubts than certainties, especially after war broke out in the Middle East.