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Practical Time Series Forecasting with R: A Hands-On Guide, Second Edition provides an applied approach to time-series forecasting. Forecasting is an essential component of predictive analytics. The book introduces popular forecasting methods and approaches used in a variety of business applications. The book offers clear explanations, practical examples, and end-of-chapter exercises and cases. Readers will learn to use forecasting methods using the free open-source R software to develop effective forecasting solutions that extract business value from time-series data.Featuring improved organization and new material, the Second Edition also includes: Popular forecasting methods including smoothing algorithms, regression models, and neural networksA practical approach to evaluating the performance of forecasting solutionsA business-analytics exposition focused on linking time-series forecasting to business goalsGuided cases for integrating the acquired knowledge using real dataEnd-of-chapter problems to facilitate active learningA companion site with data sets, R code, learning resources, and instructor materials (solutions to exercises, case studies)Globally-available textbook, available in both softcover and Kindle formatsPractical Time Series Forecasting with R: A Hands-On Guide, Second Edition is the perfect textbook for upper-undergraduate, graduate and MBA-level courses as well as professional programs in data science and business analytics. The book is also designed for practitioners in the fields of operations research, supply chain management, marketing, economics, finance and management.For more information, visit forecastingbook.com

"A rousing adventure yarn full of danger and heart and humor.” —Richard RussoAn instant classic for fans of Jane Smiley and Kitchens of the Great Midwest: when two hardscrabble young boys think they've committed a crime, they flee into the Northwoods of Wisconsin. Will the adults trying to find and protect them reach them before it's too late?It's the summer of 1994 in Claypot, Wisconsin, and the lives of ten-year-old Fischer "Fish” Branson and Dale "Bread” Breadwin are shaped by the two fathers they don't talk about. One night, tired of seeing his best friend bruised and terrorized by his no-good dad, Fish takes action. A gunshot rings out and the two boys flee the scene, believing themselves murderers. They head for the woods, where they find their way onto a raft, but the natural terrors of Ironsforge gorge threaten to overwhelm them. Four adults track them into the forest, each one on a journey of his or her own. Fish's mother Miranda, a wise woman full of fierce faith; his granddad, Teddy, who knows the woods like the back of his hand; Tiffany, a purple-haired gas station attendant and poet looking for connection; and Sheriff Cal, who's having doubts about a life in law enforcement.The adults track the boys toward the novel's heart-pounding climax on the edge of the gorge and a conclusion that beautifully makes manifest the grace these characters find in the wilderness and one another. This timeless story of loss, hope, and adventure runs like the river itself amid the vividly rendered landscape of the Upper Midwest.

Nurture your child's faith! This book is a great tool to introduce foundational truths about salvation, wellness, the good nature of God and God's good will towards us. It focuses on the finished work of Jesus and how complete wholeness; spiritual, mental, physical and emotional is available and provided through the finished work of Jesus.

A gripping new psychological thriller from S.J. Watson, the New York Times bestselling author of Before I Go to Sleep, in which a documentary filmmaker travels to a sleepy fishing village to shoot her new film and encounters a dark mystery surrounding the disappearance of a local girl.They tried to hide the truth. But the camera never liesBlackwood Bay. An ordinary place, home to ordinary people. It used to be a buzzing seaside destination. But now, ravaged by the effects of dwindling tourism and economic downturn, its a ghost townand the perfect place for film-maker Alex to shoot her new documentary. But the community is deeply suspicious of her intentions. After all, nothing exciting ever happens in Blackwood Bayor does it?

En un pueblo a trescientos kilómetros de cualquier lugar, los destinos de un puñado de personajes se entrelazan en una narración magistral de odio y miedo, pero también de amor y de esperanza.Es el día de San Valentín del año 1976 y el pueblo de Odessa, Texas, está en la cúspide de un boom petrolero.En medio del campo petrolífero, pocos minutos antes del amanecer, Glory Ramírez, de catorce años, logra sacar fuerzas para escapar de su agresor. Atraviesa el campo entre alambres de púas, restos de tuberías rotas y matojos de mezquite hasta llegar a la puerta de Mary Rose Whitehead, cuya vida se ve irremediablemente trastocada no sólo por la crueldad de la que ha sido víctima la niña ?bien podría ser su hija? sino por los hechos subsecuentes, que se suman a los relatos de violencia e injusticia cotidianas que por generaciones han sufrido las mujeres de su pueblo.Más allá de describir el contexto histórico de un pueblo sureño, Elizabeth Wetmore nos ofrece un potente debut literario que explora los límites del ser humano. Una novela coral extraordinariamente escrita que nos lleva por las entrañas de las mujeres que la protagonizan.Nacida y criada en West Texas, Elizabeth Wetmore vive con su esposo y su hijo en Chicago. Amor y furia es su primera novela.

Melpomene, a professor working in a fictional Singaporean university, devotes herself to writing an erotic novel devoid of literary qualities, as she is convinced of the emptiness of the modern world. Even though this gem of expat literature deals with themes like sex and suicide, readers consider it to be "hilarious". Critics said: "A sensitive flâneur's existence in Singapore is captured with Kunderaesque asides" (Cyril Wong, poet) and "Passani's incisive prose masterfully examines post-modern paralysis" (M. M. Ávila García, Lecturer).

A pandemic made us all sad, mute and tremble with fear. We locked the entire world one day and isolated ourselves from each other. This book Thoughts Unlocked - Lockdown Days Musings is a perfect riposte to a pandemic that has rendered the humans voiceless. Writer Sreenivasan ruminates on how the pandemic made a larger impact on his life and those around him. It would give the reader an insight into how a human mind works when, one day, the world closes all its doors and puts us all under house arrest. This book tells the stories of the past, present and future. It seems autobiographical and fictitious at times. It may lack in order of things, but is written in a language that is lucid, mild, straight and with a grand touch of humour. The thoughts the writer shares here would create in every reader a ponderous urgency to look back to the lives we had in the past. This book is a definite read and should be a great help in the freeing of our thoughts and presumptions.

Con una combinación de intriga y rigor histórico, Palabras de fuego traslada a los lectores a un momento histórico, en el que la palabra impresa podía ser el arma más transformadora.

Have you ever wondered how professional day traders earn consistent returns like the intelligent investor, while others are destined for frustration? Do you want to know how to avoid the loss and earn consistently in the stock market?The main difference between Market Wizards and novice can be found in their education, knowledge, expertise, timing, habits, associations, and choice of appropriate tools and methods.MASTERMIND OF DAY TRADING explains the rule-based ideas of market profile, price action, and various money management topics, especially for intraday trading. How to make Money with breakout trading is a part of price action lesson that discusses how to Make Money with trading the candlestick charts and trading the price action trends.It is the first Intraday Trading Book of its kind that represents an objective way of interpreting market profile trading and price action trading concepts. It also narrates a key concept I have learned in TRADING IN THE ZONE book by Mark Douglas, which helps you align Mind Markets and Money in the right direction.In the first half of the book, you will stroll around the basics and advanced concepts of Market Profile and Price Action, which helps in forming the intraday trading strategies. In the second half, you will be able to organise these methods for developing a possible entry and exit rules for day trading 101 strategies. The risk management part will give you insights about the systematic handling of the position sizing and compounding the trading account.Most importantly, I want to keep it simple because I believe, IN TRADING LESS IS MORE.Well, Are you ready to take a step ahead and become a PRO INTRADAY TRADER?

This is the autobiography of Hobie Billingsley, the world's greatest diving coach in the history of the sport. You will be inspired and challenged to succeed beyond your dreams when you read this emotional, heart-warming story. Growing up with a single parent mother in poverty during the depression, Hobie sneaks into the Erie, Pennsylvania YMCA so frequently at age 8 that they ignore him. He is taken under the wing of the swimming and diving coach there, and overcomes all kinds of obstacles to his success. His coach suggests he go to compete in a national diving meet at Yale University where he is befriended by all the great divers at the time from Ohio State University who teach him their techniques. He ends up enrolling at Ohio State and becomes an All-American all four years, and national champion. But his competitive career is interrupted by WW II and serves in the Army Air Corps. When he returns to Ohio State after the war, he continues to dive and also compete on the gymnastics team and becomes the head cheerleader for Ohio State. He ultimately becomes only the second collegiate diving coach ever hired at Indiana University, and takes a non-existent diving program to unequalled heights of success by challenging every one of his divers to excel beyond their dreams. And he produces 132 International Olympic and National Champions. This is a fascinating story that will have you laugh one moment and cry the next that keep you spellbound to turn the next page. And enjoyable read for all ages and avocations. Well written and edited with excellent pictures depicting the history of diving for the last fifty years.

On July 17th 1939, Eileen Alexander, a bright young woman recently graduated from Girton College, Cambridge, begins a brilliant correspondence with fellow Cambridge student Gershon Ellenbogen that lasts five years and spans many hundreds of letters. But as Eileen and Gershons relationship flourishes from friendship and admiration into passion and love, the tensions between Germany, Russia, and the rest of Europe reach a crescendo. When war is declared, Gershon heads for Cairo and Eileen forgoes her studies to work in the Air Ministry.As cinematic as Atonement, written with the intimacy of the Neapolitan quartet, Love in the Blitz is an extraordinary glimpse of life in London during World War II and an illuminating portrait of an ordinary young woman trying to carve a place for herself in a time of uncertainty. As the Luftwaffe begins its bombardment of England, Eileen, like her fellow Britons, carries on while her loved ones are called up to fight, some never to return home.Written over the course of the conflict, Eileens letters provide a vivid and personal glimpse of this historic era. Yet throughout the turmoil and bloodshed, one thing remains constant: her beloved Gershon, who remains a source of strength and support, even after he, too, joins the fighting. Though his letters have been lost to time, the bolstering force of his love for Eileen is illuminated in her responses to him.Equal parts heartrending and heartwarming, Love in the Blitz is a timeless romance and a deeply personal story of life and resilience amid the violence and terror of war.

New York Times bestseller Lisa Kleypas returns with an enthralling and steamy romance between a Scot with a mysterious past and strong-willed lady looking for adventure--and love. "The devil never tries to make people do the wrong thing by scaring them. He does it by tempting them."Lady Merritt Sterling, a strong-willed beauty who runs a shipping company, knows London society is dying to catch her in a scandal. So far, she's been too smart to provide them with one. But then she meets Keir MacRae, a rough-and-rugged Scottish whisky distiller, and all her sensible plans vanish like smoke. They couldn't be more different, but their attraction is powerful, raw and irresistible.From the moment Keir MacRae arrives in London, he has two goals. One: don't fall in love with the dazzling Lady Merritt Sterling. Two: avoid being killed.So far, neither of those is going well.Keir doesn't know why someone wants him dead until fate reveals the secret of his mysterious past. His world is thrown into upheaval, and the only one he trusts is Merritt.Their passion blazes with an intensity Merritt has never known before, making her long for the one thing she can't have from Keir MacRae: forever. As danger draws closer, she'll do whatever it takes to save the man she loves . . . even knowing he might be the devil in disguise.

A laugh-out-loud, tug-at-your-heartstrings tale of love, family, and freedom centered around three generations of Bengali women.Somlata has just married into the dynastic but declining Mitra family. At eighteen, she expects to settle into her role as a devout wife in this traditional, multi-generational family. But then Somlata, wandering the halls of the grand, decaying Mitra mansion, stumbles upon the body of her great aunt-in-law, Pishima.A child bride widowed at twelve, Pishima has finally passed away at the ripe old age of seventy. But she isnt letting go just yet. Pishima has long harbored a grudge against the Mitras for keeping her in perpetual widowhood, never allowed to fall in love.. Now, her ghost intends to meddle in their lives, making as much mischief as possible. Pishima gives Somlata the keys to her mysterious box of gold to keep it out of the Mitras hands. However, the selfless Somlata, witnessing her new family waste away their wealth to the brink of bankruptcy, has her own ideas.Boshon is a book-loving, scooter-riding, rebellious teenager who wants nothing to do with the many suitors that ask for her hand. She yearns for freedom and wants to go to college. But when her poor neighbor returns from America she finds herself falling in love. Perhaps Pishimas yearning spirit lives on in her own her heart?The Aunt Who Wouldnt Die is a frenetic, funny, and fresh novel about three generations of Mitra women who are surprising at every turn and defy all expectations. They may be guarding a box of gold, but they are the true treasures in this gem of a novel.

"To knead dough mindfully is a way of slowing down, of giving ourselves the opportunity to be in the present moment." Bread Therapy is a self-help book that celebrates baking bread; a practice that not only produces delicious loaves, but also improves mental health and wellbeing. As the world feels ever more dangerous and unreliable, there is something soothing and grounding about basic human activities such as baking. Breadmaking provides an ideal opportunity to develop mindfulness skills by forcing you to concentrate on what you can see, hear, feel, and smell. Escape your mind and connect with your body by kneading a classic sourdough, or even just by tasting fresh bread straight out of the oven. Featuring delicious recipes and how-tos that will inspire everyone from the bread baking beginner to a seasoned pro, this book is part guide, part cookbook, and the perfect gift for anyone that has discovered the joy of bread (or still needs to!). This delightful meditation on the intrinsic power of baking will fill your stomach and calm your mind.

La guía perfecta para entender tu carta natal y aceptarte por quién eres.En este manual revolucionario, Chani Nicholas te enseña a utilizar la astrología como herramienta de autodescubrimiento, éxito y cuidado personal. Con ella, aprenderás que los astros no son una excusa para aceptar pasivamente tu destino, sino una oportunidad para entrar en acción y autoaceptarte radicalmente, es decir: descubrir que eres exactamente como debes ser. Aquí, el horóscopo no dictará tu futuro: tu carta natal es una instantánea del cielo en el momento exacto en que naciste y encierra las claves para vivir una vida llena de sentido. Cada signo, planeta y punto del cielo guarda para ti un poder infinito que define quién eres, cómo te mueves en el mundo y cuál es tu propósito de vida. Has nacido para esto es una guía feminista y comprometida con la justicia social que, a través de preguntas de reflexión, gráficas y afirmaciones basadas en tu carta natal, te hará mirar hacia adentro para encontrar tu valía. Levántate contra lo que la sociedad te ha enseñado a ser y desbloquea todo tu potencial. Tu signo solar no es más que el principio.CHANI NICHOLAS es una reconocidísima astróloga y activista basada en Los Ángeles. Lleva más de veinte años compartiendo su talento a través de sus cursos, artículos, página web y, ahora, de Has nacido para esto. Más de un millón de lectoras han aprendido de su carta natal y descubierto su propósito de vida gracias a ella. Chani mezcla su conocimiento del lenguaje de los astros con una perspectiva progresista que alude a las comunidades marginadas y oprimidas para convertir la astrología en una fuerza de cambio. Entre otros, ha colaborado con The New York Times, Rolling Stone, y Netflix. Visítala en: www.chanicholas.com.

A young schoolboy, looking up to the stars has no idea where he will end up someday...Matt Sutherland is happiest when he talks about astronomy with his Aunt Ethel. One Christmas, he receives an unusual present - a large pom-pom in many colors looking other worldly, who, later wakes up as a live alien being, introducing herself as 'Yesl' from the planet Antrobi.That summer, Matt travels with Yesl to a Scottish Island to stay with his uncle and family, where the mystery of Yesl's origin is tantalizingly revealed amidst a media sensation. Being introduced to Yesl's fellow crew members, they learn of the events that led to their space mission from Antrobi foundering on the Earth.Years later in the USA, Matt and his fiancee meet the Balkien crew of another Antrobian spacecraft sent to look for the lost ship. While in Australia, Matt, his family, Yesl and her crew-mates learn that Antrobi is in peril from an evil force. Matt and his relations are asked to partake in their long distance quest to rescue the Balkien race on Antrobi from their oppression...