Bøker av Richard Vague

When we talk about debt and its economic impact, we usually centre on “government debt,â€? and overlook the debt owed by individuals and firms that is vital to truly understanding the economy. In this iconoclastic book, Richard Vague examines the assets, liabilities, and incomes of the American economy as a whole, not just of the government. The book shows that debt growth in excess of GDP growth is a feature of modern economic systems, not a bug‿and thus ever-increasing leverage is built into the very structure of the economy. Vague uses the data presented in the book to show that rising debt is the primary source of economic growth, new money creation, and wealth creation‿but that it also brings heightened inequality and can bring economic calamity when left unchecked. Vague also compares and contrasts the financial data of the U.S. to the world‿s other largest economies. As an expert on the role of private debt in the global economy, Vague offers an innovative set of policies to try to manage this debt paradox. Whether you are a policymaker or a private citizen looking to understand these dynamics, this book is an indispensable guide.

Financial crises happen time and again in post-industrial economies—and they are extraordinarily damaging. Building on insights gleaned from many years of work in the banking industry and drawing on a vast trove of data, Richard Vague argues that such crises follow a pattern that makes them both predictable and avoidable.A Brief History of Doom examines a series of major crises over the past 200 years in the United States, Great Britain, Germany, France, Japan, and China—including the Great Depression and the economic meltdown of 2008. Vague demonstrates that the over-accumulation of private debt does a better job than any other variable of explaining and predicting financial crises. In a series of clear and gripping chapters, he shows that in each case the rapid growth of loans produced widespread overcapacity, which then led to the spread of bad loans and bank failures. This cycle, according to Vague, is the essence of financial crises and the script they invariably follow.The story of financial crisis is fundamentally the story of private debt and runaway lending. Convinced that we have it within our power to break the cycle, Vague provides the tools to enable politicians, bankers, and private citizens to recognize and respond to the danger signs before it begins again.

In this illuminating and provocative work, Richard Vague argues that the rapid expansion of private debt-rather than public spending-is what constrains economic growth and triggers economic calamities like the financial crisis of 2008.