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    UNCOVERED: 1 in 4 EXAM GRADES IS WRONG'An important contribution to our thinking.' Sixth Form Colleges Association'An uncomfortable but important read.' Headmasters' and Headmistresses' Conference'Everyone in UK education should reflect upon the problems identifiedin this powerful book' -Higher Education Policy InstituteEvery summer one million GCSE and A-Level candidates receiveresults that define their school years and set them up for their life.But those results aregravely unreliable.In fact, about one grade in four in England is WRONG. That is 1.5 million grades every year.An A-Level grade B might havebeen an A, or even a C, had a different examiner marked thescript. Similarly, a GCSE grade 7 might have received a grade 8 ora 6.For a decade, young people and their friends and families havebeen unable to grasp the full extent of this randomness. Now, in this definitive and easy to follow book, DennisSherwood explains why so many pupils receive finalgrades that don't do them justice. And he suggests ways to regaintrust, which apply to essay-based exams throughout the world.Reviews'Know an A Level student who you were absolutely sure should nail an A* butended up with a B? Well, they probably should have got that A* but were a victimof this scandal. Sherwood's work changed my outlook. Let him change yours too.' Robert Campbell, former Chief Executive, Morris Education Trust'Dennis has been challenging our thinking about assessment and the awarding ofgrades for many years, combining detailed research with an engaging mannerand clear explanations... this is an important contribution to our thinking.' Bill Watkin, Chief Executive, Sixth Form Colleges Association'Dennis Sherwood asks the questions about exam grades that no one really wantsto answer. His analysis suggests that much of what we think we know about schoolexams is based at best on wishful thinking and at worst on wilful misrepresentationof statistics. But he also has some positive suggestions for improvement. Missingthe Mark is an uncomfortable but important read.' Melvyn Roffe, Chair, Headmasters' and Headmistresses' Conference'Missing a grade can result in university or college applications being rejected.Dennis Sherwood asks the $64,000 question: 'Are grades reliable enough for thepurposes they are supposed to serve?' This book presents an insightful analysis ofthis important matter, including the rules introduced in 2016 to reduce the numberof appeals, the controversial grading processes in 2020 and 2021 when examswere cancelled, why 'real' grades are so unreliable, and some solutions too.' Huy Duong, parent'Everyone in UK education should reflect upon the problems identifiedin this powerful book - and then decide what to do about them.' Nick Hillman, Director, Higher Education Policy InstituteAnyone with an interest in how examinations are assessed, from those in government, regulators, schools, colleges, universities to employers, teachers, parents and students, should read Dennis Sherwood's incisive analysis. His conclusions will have a profound impact on our idea of the accuracy, reliability and fairness of examinations. -Mike Larkin,Emeritus Professor Queen's University of Belfast and Total Equality For Students'Dennis provides a clear, step-by-stepoutline of what is going so terribly wrongand the easy ways to remedy this.' Ollie Green, A-level studentAbout the authorDennis Sherwood is a management consultant withexperience of solving complex problems. He has aPhysics Masters from the University of Cambridge,an MPhil in Molecular Biophysics and Biochemistryfrom Yale University and a PhD in biology from theUniversity of California in San Diego.After being a consulting partner at Deloitte Haskins+ Sells, and Coopers & Lybrand, he became anexecutive director at Goldman Sachs. He nowruns his own business, The Silver Bullet MachineManufacturing Company Limited, specialising inorganisational creativity and innovation. He is authorof 14 books.Extract - ForewordGold standard! Well, maybe not! For many years England's GCSEand A-level qualifications have enjoyed an international reputationas world-leading. They have frequently been cited as 'gold standard'examinations. In this book Dennis Sherwood applies forensic analysis,in an accessible format, to one aspect of those qualifications - the gradesawarded to each student on results day. His expert commentary leavesus in no doubt that the architecture of reliability is nothing more than afancy faade on a house that's built on sand.This is not a book about whether examinations are the best way toassess authentic learning. That's a different debate, although there'sevidence here that excessive reliance on end-of-course examinationsexacerbates the great grading scandal.This is also not a book about whether the content of our examination-driven school and college curriculum is well-designed, fit for purposeor sufficiently visionary for the future needs of students. That too is a longoverdue discussion which should inform public policy, but Dennis retainshis focus on one pressing issue. Are the grades awarded to students atthe end of the examination process a reliable indicator of their performanceand ability? Can those grades be trusted to determine suitabilityfor advanced academic study or access to employment? Do they serve todifferentiate authentically between one student and the next?We are all familiar with the results day photographs that accompanythe headlines in August. Enthusiastic celebrations with beaming smiles.Images that are carefully contrived to align with the supporting text as'Camelia' (or whoever) progresses to a top university with her four A*grades or 'Daniel' revealed to be a prodigy as he attains twelve grade 9'sin his GCSEs.Their results may well be impressive and will certainly open doorstowards privileged academic opportunities. But what if the student withAAB is actually no better, in any meaningful sense, than the student withBAC? What if these grades lack the precision that they appear to convey?Is there an element of unreliability in how they are awarded - such thattwo otherwise identical candidates may as well roll a dice alongside completingtheir examination paper to determine which, say, of two adjacentgrades they may ultimately be awarded?If Dennis is right - and I think he is - then a great grading scandalunfolds before our eyes every summer...[Buy the book to continue reading the foreword]Dr Robin Bevan,Headteacher, Southend High School for Boys andNEU Past National President, 2020-21

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